Baltic Roundup | November 2024
By Indra Ekmanis - A look back at November in the Baltic states.
Dear Readers,
November 19 marked 1,000 days since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. The Baltic states continue to be among Kyiv’s most ardent supporters. Now, a look back at the month in the region.
Politics
Following his reelection, Baltic leaders congratulated Donald Trump online and spoke with the US president-elect via telephone with messages that stressed their countries’ historically strong ties with the US, spending on defense, the importance of NATO, and concerns over Russia.
Lithuania formed its new governing coalition. The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) — which came out on top in October’s elections — signed an agreement with the Democratic Union “For Lithuania” and the Nemunas Dawn party. Gintautas Paluckas (LSDP) was confirmed as Lithuania’s prime minister. The inclusion of Nemunas Dawn has drawn domestic protests and international backlash — the party’s leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, is known for anti-Semitic statements and has been indicted for inciting violence and hatred against Jews.
Estonia’s Kaja Kallas and Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius will head the European Commission’s portfolios on foreign affairs, and space and defense, respectively. Listen to the latest Baltic Ways to hear political scientist Andžej Pukšto’s take on what advantages they have entering their new jobs, and how they might overcome the roadblocks ahead.
Security
A DHL cargo plane flying from Leipzig, Germany, crashed outside of Vilnius, killing one crew member. It is the largest aviation crash in the Baltic states in the last decade. The cause is still under investigation, though sabotage has not been ruled out. In July, incendiary devices sparked fires at DHL logistics centers in Leipzig and Birmingham in the UK. Western intelligence officials have pointed at Russia, and the Wall Street Journal reports that these were part of a suspected covert Russian plan to start fires on aircraft traveling to the US or Canada.
In a suspected hybrid attack from Russia, telecom operator Telia sustained damage to its undersea cable between Sweden and Lithuania, while another data cable between Finland and Germany was damaged in the days following the US authorization for Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike Russian territory. A Chinese-registered ship was detained as part of the investigation. The Wilson Center asks, could these continued attacks trigger NATO’s Article 5? Poland suggested implementing a Baltic Sea policing mission in response. Also, Sweden began distributing pamphlets on preparing for war or crisis.
Defense
The European Commission for the first time approved financing for five common defense procurement projects. Estonia and Latvia are among the six member states part of the JAMIE project to procure IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense systems. Latvia is also part of the group procuring a Common Armoured Vehicle System, while Estonia is part of the Mistral very short-range air defense systems project. Lithuania and Estonia are each part of projects procuring ammunition. Each project will receive €60 million.
A regional investigation mapped developments in Russia’s military bases along Baltic and Polish borders. Several bases show signs of active use and rapid infrastructure development.
Energy & Infrastructure
Lithuania will buy the LNG carrier Independence from Norway’s Hoegh LNG for about $150 million. Independence has been the main supplier of Lithuania's gas since the country stopped imports from Russia in April 2022. The presidents of all three Baltic countries and Poland will attend the ceremony.
In an effort to reduce ballooning Rail Baltica costs, a priority railway line will run from Lithuania to the Estonian border, bypassing Riga, the Latvian government agreed after heated discussions. Passengers will be able to travel to the Rail Baltica line from Riga’s international stations, but high-speed trains will not come to the capital for some years yet.
Lithuania’s Seimas voted in favor of legislation intended to block Chinese companies from gaining remote access to large-scale batteries and solar and wind farms. The amendments are aimed at reducing risks to electricity systems from “hostile countries;” Lithuania’s National Security Strategy lists China among the countries that pose a threat.
Shares in Latvian gas company Latvijas Gāze were bought back from Russia’s Gazprom; the majority of shareholders in the company are now Latvian citizens.
Crime and Justice
Latvia detained and handed over to Lithuania two Spanish citizens accused of plotting a terror attack against telecommunications company TVC Solutions, based in Šiaulai, Lithuania. One of the citizens is reportedly also a Russian national.
The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) in Riga and Vilnius mobilized 624 law enforcement officers in raids covering 16 countries to uncover a Baltic-based criminal syndicate engaged in value-added tax (VAT) fraud spanning Europe.
The United Kingdom has added former Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs and his daughter to the list of sanctioned individuals. Lembergs, one of Latvia’s so-called oligarchs, has been convicted on multiple corruption charges.
In Case You Missed It
Transatlantic Energy Security From a Baltic Perspective by Justina Budginaite-Froehly
Baltic Leadership in the European Commission - The Baltic Ways Podcast
Upcoming Conference
December 10, 2024, the Eastern Europe Studies Centre (EESC) presents The 10th Annual “Chief of Diplomacy” Stasys Lozoraitis Lithuanian Foreign Policy Conference. FPRI is pleased to collaborate with EESC for a conference that will address pressing topics in European security, transatlantic relations, and the implications of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Read the agenda here and click here for registration to attend virtually.