Baltic Roundup | May 2024
May marked 20 years since the Baltic countries' accession to the European Union.
Dear Readers,
May marked 20 years since the Baltic countries' accession to the European Union. “The Baltic States are 'excellent proof' of how membership in the European Union empowers impressive modernization and economic progress,” said today’s presidents in a co-written op-ed. Now, a look back at the month.
Elections
Lithuanian went to the polls to re-elect President Gitanas Nausėda in a landslide second round facing off against Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė (Christian Democrat) in a repeat of the 2019 elections. While both run-off candidates agreed on major security issues, domestic issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights were a dividing factor, and analysts say Šimonytė suffered the consequences of the unpopularity of the ruling conservatives. Read more about Nausėda's second-term priorities.
Elections for members of the European Parliament are coming in June. Turnout may be low, particularly in rural areas. Who's running and what are their platforms in Latvia (part 2), Lithuania, and Estonia? Also, Re:Baltica obtained nearly 19,000 of Tatjana Ždanoka's emails. The Latvian MEP has been under investigation for serving as an asset of Russia's security services.
Security
The Baltic states, Poland, Norway, and Finland also announced an agreement to construct a “drone wall” to protect their borders with Russia. Latvia will also invest €20 million to develop a “drone army” as part of efforts to enhance autonomous capabilities and partnerships with the local defense industry. Estonia is investing €50 million in a defense industry fund. Lithuania announced plans to permanently fortify its borders with Belarus and Russia.
A draft decree out of Russia's Ministry of Defense Russian that suggested altering borders in the Baltic Sea caused consternation, particularly in Lithuania. The draft document was later deleted.
Russia's Victory Day parade appeared on Latvian televisions after the telecoms operator Balticom experienced a cyber attack on its server in Bulgaria. (This year's parade shows the toll of war in Russia, writes Peter Dickinson for the Atlantic Council.)
Foreign Affairs
Estonia voted in favor of a May 10 United Nations resolution to recognize Palestine as a full member of the international body. Lithuania and Latvia, as well as Finland and Sweden, abstained. Also, Nordic-Baltic countries issued a joint statement condemning the recent “foreign agents law” in Georgia.
Estonia's Riigikogu passed legislation allowing the use of frozen assets belonging to sanctioned Russians to compensate Ukraine for damage resulting from Russia's war. Some intend the law to serve as an example for other EU and NATO countries.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs spoke with CNN journalist Christiane Amanpour on the importance of removing restrictions on weapons use to allow Ukraine to strike legitimate military targets within Russia. (In a dramatic policy reversal on May 30, the Biden administration announced it would allow limited strikes with US weapons.) For The Economist, German Chancellor Olaf Schulz reflected on why Putin's imperialism will fail from the Lithuanian town of Pabradė.
Economy
The OECD economic outlooks for the Baltic countries highlight the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, as well as inflation from wage growth. The body advises tax reforms, reviews public expenditures, and focuses on looming issues like aging populations and energy transitions.
Following April numbers, Lithuanian economists say that inflation has come to a virtual halt, though prices are around 30% higher than four years ago. Cheaper energy resources have played a role, but economists predict an uptick in inflation as the weather cools. Inflation was comparatively lower in April in Latvia and Estonia as well.
Aitäh, paldies and ačiū,
Indra Ekmanis
Baltic Bulletin Editor
In Case You Missed It:
The First Year of Conscription in Latvia by Māris Andžāns
Baltic Ways Podcast: The Baltic States Mark Two Decades of NATO Membership
Catch up on the latest from the Baltic Ways podcast. New episodes are coming soon!