Baltic Roundup | January 2025
By Indra Ekmanis - A look back at January in the Baltic states.
Dear Readers,
2025 has wasted no time making news. Here’s a look back at January in the Baltic states.
Defense & Security
Sweden is investigating suspected “gross sabotage” after an underwater fiber optic cable belonging to the Latvian State Radio and Television Center running between Ventspils and Gotland was damaged. The incident follows a series of disruptions in the Baltic Sea. It comes just days after NATO began Baltic Sentry, a mission to protect underwater cables and pipelines in the region. Also, a 550-solider Swedish mechanized infantry battalion joined the NATO multinational brigade in Latvia — Sweden’s most significant operation as a new member of the alliance.
All three Baltic countries intend to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP in the coming years. US President Donald Trump, whose administration has taken a wrecking ball to the federal government and international partnerships during his first weeks back in office, has called on NATO allies to up their spending to a 5% target — more than any member state currently spends. (Poland, Estonia, the US, Latvia, Greece, and Lithuania are the top spenders.) Increased spending has been a priority for Eastern Flank countries. “This is the message that Estonia has been advocating for years,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė noted that Lithuania’s planned increase was not “specifically tailored” to Trump but rather a “lucky coincidence.” Baltic officials are avoiding ties of military spending to new taxes, but questions remain about how to pay for increases. Recently-confirmed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised countries close to Russia for their defense spending while criticizing allies farther west.
For the Baltic Bulletin, Maj. Jacob Myers writes about the strategic partnership between the US and the Baltic countries as a beacon of collaborative security and collective capabilities solutions.
Estonia took delivery of six High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from Lockheed Martin in January. Part of a $200-million contract signed in 2022, the acquisition is one of Estonia’s largest, including training, logistics, and ammunition.
Latvia announced a 644 million euro plan to upgrade military bases and border infrastructure and strengthen economic development in the Latgale region. The cabinet of ministers also reallocated 200 million euros to prioritize air defenses.
Infrastructure & Economy
More than 700 GPS interference incidents were reported in Latvia in 2024 — double the incidents in 2023. December alone saw 292 incidents, while by January 23, more than 120 were recorded. Signal jamming attributed to Russia has also disrupted maritime traffic in the region, prompting efforts to improve analog navigation aids like buoys and beacons.
Latvian national airline airBaltic reported that GPS issues impacted around one-third of flights in March and November. The carrier plans to cancel over 4,500 flights this summer as it manages a backup of engine maintenance in its fleet. Lufthansa Group will acquire a minority stake in the airline, investing 14 million euros. In Estonia, a court declared Nordic Aviation Group, which runs Nordica airlines, bankrupt.
Lithuanian security services are protecting critical infrastructure in advance of the Baltic countries’ decoupling from the Russia-controlled BRELL power grid and synchronization with the European network. All three Baltic countries and Poland seek European Union funding to enhance protections, including from drones, as they brace for possible attacks on the power systems. Also, Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe through Ukraine on New Year’s Day after Ukraine refused to renew an agreement with Gazprom.
Baltic publics broadly consider Rail Baltica important for both military mobility and European integration. But a 9 million euro shortfall may threaten the project's ability to move forward in Latvia, say the Ministry of Transport and the management board of RB Rail. The government has until February 20 to figure out steps forward. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa said that the project must find ways to reduce costs.
Policy changes in Lithuania will see pensions and childcare subsidies rise in 2025, along with increases for fuel and alcohol. Homebuyers will see changes to mortgages and state subsidies.
Society & Culture
Lithuania’s Deputy Finance Minister, Valentin Gavrilov, stepped down from his post after his social media posts raised questions about Gavrilov as a potential threat to national security. His colleagues, Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas and Finance Minister Rimantas Šadžius, publicly vouched for Gavrilov’s loyalty to Lithuania.
Demographic concerns remain significant in the Baltic countries as statistics bureaus show birth rates declining in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The animated movie Flow (Straume) by Latvian director Gints Zilbalodis has won over 40 international accolades, including a Golden Globe, and has garnered two Oscar nominations. The film, which follows a cat seeking refuge from a devastating flood, features no dialogue and has broken all Latvian movie attendance records. The movie is showing across the US.
Joel Burke, a contributing author to FPRI’s Baltic Initiative, seeks to answer how Estonia became a digital and e-government powerhouse home to numerous billion-dollar tech companies in a single generation. His book, Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution, is available for preorder from Oxford University Press — Baltic Roundup readers in the US can get 30% off using the code ADISTA5.
Aitäh, paldies and ačiū,
Indra Ekmanis
Baltic Bulletin Editor
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US-Baltic Defense Partnerships: A Return on Investment - Jacob Myers
Hello,
I think that it's typo in Defense & Security, first paragraph:
..."Also, a 550-solider Swedish mechanized infantry"-
Is it "soldier"?